Danger ahead for the mighty euro强势欧元之危险前景
Danger ahead for the mighty euro强势欧元之危险前景Charlemagne
查理曼大帝
Danger ahead for the mighty euro
强势欧元之危险前景
Apr 10th 2008 2008年4月10日
From The Economist print edition 经济学人印刷版
Euro-zone economies face external woes and internal tensions
欧元区经济面临内忧外患
AT THE World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2001, the mood was sombre. The dotcom bubble had burst
spectacularly, the Nasdaq stockmarket had crashed, and the American economy was tipping into recession. Yet most continental Europeans were breezily optimistic. The long years of being lectured about their inadequacies by the Anglo-Saxons were over. Europe had wisely skipped the dotcom mania, and its new currency, the euro, was giving the continent a boost. Some Europeans even dreamed of taking over as the motor of the world economy. But it was not to be, as Europe promptly fell into a deeper recession even than America.
2001年1月在达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛上，到处弥漫着悲观的情绪。网络泡沫刚刚以令人炫目的方式破裂，纳斯达克股市业已崩盘，美国经济正步入衰退期。然而大多数身处欧洲大陆的人们此时却满面春风，信心满怀。被盎格鲁撒克逊人训斥得一无是处的漫长岁月终于一去不复返了。欧洲极其精明地躲过了互联网引发的种种癫狂，它的新货币¬—欧元给整个欧洲大陆注射了一剂强心剂。一些欧洲人甚至梦想着取而代之，成为世界经济的火车头。然而随着欧洲迅即地陷入比美国更严重的经济衰退，这一切未能如愿。
Seven years on, the parallels are uncanny. Continental Europe has sensibly
avoided America's subprime follies, it is argued. Its banks are in better shape,
average euro-area unemployment of 7.1% is the lowest in almost 20 years, the
euro is resurgent and, as Joaquín Almunia, the engaging European economics
commissioner, insists, there is no sign of a recession. The commission will trim
its forecasts later this month, but euro-area growth is likely to stay close to
2% this year. It is true that the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt has,
like America's Federal Reserve, flooded the financial system with liquidity in
response to the credit crunch. But unlike the Fed, it has not so far felt the
need to bring down interest rates.
七年过去了，这些比对显得不可思议。据称欧洲大陆已经明智的避免了美国在次优级抵押贷款上所犯的种种蠢行。它的银行体系更加健康，欧元区7.1%的平均失业率处于几乎二十年中的最低水平，欧元业已复苏，正如Joaquín
Almunia这位富有魅力的欧洲经济事务理事所强调的那样，欧洲目前没有任何衰退迹象。该理事会将于本月晚些时候修正其预测，但是欧元区今年的经济增长率很有可能接近2%。的确，位于法兰克福的欧洲中央银行(ECB)与美联储一样都向金融系统注入大量流动性资产，以此应对信贷紧缩。但是与美联储不同的是，至今它还没有感到有降低利率的必要。
Just
as in 2001, however, the outlook for the euro area seems to be deteriorating a
lot faster than the optimists had expected. After all, the main reason that the
ECB has been reluctant to cut rates is not because growth is so robust but
because inflation has picked up to 3.5%—the highest in the euro's nine-year
existence. Troubles in the region's two biggest export markets—recession in
America and slowdown in Britain—are starting to bite. Exports to Asia have been
strong, especially from Germany, but in most countries nervous consumers remain
reluctant to spend.
然而，正如2001年，欧元区经济前景恶化的速度似乎比乐观主义者所期待的要快得多。毕竟，欧洲中央银行一直不愿削减利率的主要原因并非是因为经济增长势头强劲，而是由于通胀率已攀升至3.5%——欧元九年历史的最高位。该地区最大的两个出口市场都陷入困境，其中美国经济步入衰退，英国经济也已减速，由此而产生的效果正开始显现。对亚洲的出口，尤其是源于德国的出口一直强劲，但是在大多数国家里，紧张的消费者依然不愿消费。
And
two bigger worries have emerged. The first is the strength of the euro. A weaker
dollar is driving an American export boom; a stronger euro is likely to have the
opposite effect in Europe. Mr Almunia says the euro is "overvalued" and adds
that, although the impact has been moderate so far, "we are at the limits, if
not beyond them." It is a delusion to suppose that euro-area exports can
continue to barrel on regardless of their
cost.
两个更大的忧虑已经出现。其一就是欧元的强势。日趋羸弱的美元使美国的出口呈现一片繁荣景象；不断强势的欧元则很可能在欧洲产生相反的效果。Almunia认为欧元现在"被高估了"，并补充说道，尽管影响至今仍然是温和的，"我们目前处于增长的极限，如果不是已超越极限的话。"那种认为欧元区出口会继续不顾成本，高歌猛进的观点不过是海市蜃楼般的幻觉。
The
second worry is the housing market. Europe may have avoided the American
subprime mess, but in several countries house prices have been even bubblier
than in America. They are already falling in Spain and Ireland, and, beyond the
euro zone, are starting to do so in Britain. A property bust may not produce an
American-style mortgage meltdown, but it will surely topple economies heavily
dependent on construction (which accounts for 15% or more of Spanish and Irish
GDP, for example).
第二个忧虑就是<SPAN class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B5%D8%B2%FA">房地产市场。欧洲或许已经避免了美国式的次贷危机，但是在好几个国家，<SPAN
class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B5%D8%B2%FA">房地产市场上的价格泡沫比起美国来有过之而无不及。在西班牙和爱尔兰，<SPAN
class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B2%FA">房产价格已经下跌，并且这种趋势已超越欧元区，英国的<SPAN
class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B2%FA">房产价格也开始下跌。<SPAN class=t_tag
onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B2%FA">房产业的不景气或许不会引发美国式的抵押市场萎缩，但是它势必会重创严重依赖建筑业的经济体（比如建筑业占西班牙与爱尔兰GDP的15%抑或更高的比例。）。
Indeed,
Mr Almunia's home country of Spain appears especially vulnerable. He maintains
that Anglo-Saxon commentators are excessively pessimistic about Spain's
prospects. But the signs of a sharp slowdown are clear even to the re-elected
prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who has announced a fiscal
stimulus to help Spain weather the "turbulence". Given that Spain has in recent
years accounted for a big chunk of euro-zone growth and close to half of all
jobs created in the euro area, its slowdown will be widely felt. And not just in
economics. It will be a lot harder to sell the EU's ambitious plans to cut CO2
emissions in a faltering economy, for
instance.
其实，Almunia先生的祖国西班牙显得特别易受伤害。他坚持认为英美的评论员们对于西班牙的前景过于悲观。但是甚至对于重新当选的首相José
Luis Rodríguez
Zapatero来说，经济急速减缓的迹象已是显而易见。Zapatero已经宣布了一项财政刺激方案用以帮助西班牙经受住此次"动荡"。考虑到最近几年来西班牙占欧元区经济增长的很大比重，它占该地区所创造就业机会的比例更是接近一半，因此西班牙经济减速所造成的影响将会相当广泛。而且影响面不单单局限于经济领域。比如说要在一个步履蹒跚的经济体内兜售欧盟雄心勃勃的二氧化碳减排计划，那将是难上加难。
The
political fallout will be felt in other ways too, because of the differential
performance of euro-area economies. Mr Almunia admits that France and Italy are
a lot weaker than Germany; soon enough, French and Italian leaders (especially
if Silvio Berlusconi wins Italy's imminent election) will squeal ever more
loudly about the euro's strength, the ECB's rigid monetary policy and, quite
possibly, will demand that their industries be protected from "unfair"
competition. Such pressure will be resisted by the Germans, who remain
comfortable with the euro's strength and always hate criticism of the ECB.
因为欧元区经济的表现不尽相同，<SPAN class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%D5%FE%D6%CE">政治上产生的余波也会已其他方式显露出来。Almunia先生承认法国和意大利要明显弱于德国;很快，法国和意大利的领导人（特别是如果Silvio
Berlusconi赢得意大利即将举行的<SPAN class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B4%F3%D1%A1">大选）将会比以往更大声地抱怨欧元的强势，抱怨欧洲中央银行严苛的货币政策，并且极有可能要求他们国家的产业免于受到所谓"不公平"的竞争。这样的压力自然会受到德国人的抵抗，德国人对于欧元的强势依然很适应而且总是很憎恨对欧洲中央银行的批评。
<FONT
size=3>The dark face of success
成功的黑暗面
Even critics of the
euro would concede that it has had considerable success, establishing itself in
less than a decade as a genuine rival to the dollar as a world currency. But
that success disguises two failings. The first is that some countries have
adapted a lot better to the discipline of the euro than others. Germany and the
Netherlands have cut labour costs and introduced enough reforms to make their
economies more competitive. France, Spain and especially Italy have done
less—and are suffering more, from both the euro's rise and the global
slowdown.
即便是欧元的批评者也不得不承认欧元已经取得了巨大的成功，在不到十年的时间内，将自己打造成贵为世界货币的美元的真正对手。但是成功的背后隐藏着两项弱点。其一就是一些国家对欧元纪律的适应性要比其他国家好得多。德国和荷兰削减了劳工成本，推行足够多的改革措施使得他们的经济更富有竞争力。法国，西班牙，尤其是意大利在这方面无所建树，因而面临欧元升值以及全球经济放缓时所受到的打击更严重。
The
second failing is an ironic flipside of success. To qualify for the euro in the
late 1990s, countries such as Italy and Spain had to make swingeing fiscal and
structural adjustments. Yet by shielding weaker countries from a currency
crisis, the euro now relieves much of the pressure on them to keep up reforms.
In fact, these are more essential than ever now that countries have lost the
option of devaluing their currencies to regain competitiveness and offset
relatively slow productivity growth. As Mr Almunia sadly concedes, it has proved
impossible "to compensate for the lack of market incentives for reform through
policy co-ordination and peer pressure".
第二个缺陷正是成功具有讽刺意味的另一面。为了有资质于上世纪九十年代末加入欧元区，像意大利和西班牙这样的国家不得不进行猛烈的财政和结构调整。然而通过保护较弱小的国家免于货币危机，欧元现在解除了这些国家继续改革的压力。实际上，鉴于这些国家现在已经不能通过货币贬值的方式来重获竞争力，弥补相对较慢的生产率增长速度，这些改革比以往任何时候都显得重要。正如Almunia忧伤承认的那样，"通过政策协调以及同僚压力来弥补市场激励改革的缺失已被证明是不可能的。"
In
truth, as the euro approaches its tenth birthday celebrations, it is facing the
biggest test of its short life. If Europe follows America into recession, which
is quite possible, the pain will be a lot greater in the Mediterranean countries
than in Germany and northern Europe. Not surprisingly, the political response
from the two regions will also be quite different. Even as it prepares to expand
once more to take in Slovakia and later other countries from eastern Europe, the
euro is about to show the world that it is not yet an optimal currency area—and
the demonstration may not be a pretty one.
实际上，在欧元即将迎来它十周年庆典之际，它正面临着其短暂生涯中最严峻的考验。如果欧洲步美国之后尘，陷入衰退（这一幕很有可能会出现），那么地中海国家所遭受的痛楚要比德国以及北欧严重得多。如果发现这两个地区在政治上的反应截然不同，那你不必感到惊讶。即便欧元区准备再次扩充，先是斯洛伐克，而后再吸收来自东欧的其他国家，欧元终将向世人展现出它还没有发展成为一个最优的货币区域这一事实，而且这次展示或许并非那么精彩绝伦。<FONT
size=3>
查理曼大帝
Danger ahead for the mighty euro
强势欧元之危险前景
Apr 10th 2008 2008年4月10日
From The Economist print edition 经济学人印刷版
Euro-zone economies face external woes and internal tensions
欧元区经济面临内忧外患
AT THE World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2001, the mood was sombre. The dotcom bubble had burst
spectacularly, the Nasdaq stockmarket had crashed, and the American economy was tipping into recession. Yet most continental Europeans were breezily optimistic. The long years of being lectured about their inadequacies by the Anglo-Saxons were over. Europe had wisely skipped the dotcom mania, and its new currency, the euro, was giving the continent a boost. Some Europeans even dreamed of taking over as the motor of the world economy. But it was not to be, as Europe promptly fell into a deeper recession even than America.
2001年1月在达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛上，到处弥漫着悲观的情绪。网络泡沫刚刚以令人炫目的方式破裂，纳斯达克股市业已崩盘，美国经济正步入衰退期。然而大多数身处欧洲大陆的人们此时却满面春风，信心满怀。被盎格鲁撒克逊人训斥得一无是处的漫长岁月终于一去不复返了。欧洲极其精明地躲过了互联网引发的种种癫狂，它的新货币¬—欧元给整个欧洲大陆注射了一剂强心剂。一些欧洲人甚至梦想着取而代之，成为世界经济的火车头。然而随着欧洲迅即地陷入比美国更严重的经济衰退，这一切未能如愿。
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Seven years on, the parallels are uncanny. Continental Europe has sensibly
avoided America's subprime follies, it is argued. Its banks are in better shape,
average euro-area unemployment of 7.1% is the lowest in almost 20 years, the
euro is resurgent and, as Joaquín Almunia, the engaging European economics
commissioner, insists, there is no sign of a recession. The commission will trim
its forecasts later this month, but euro-area growth is likely to stay close to
2% this year. It is true that the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt has,
like America's Federal Reserve, flooded the financial system with liquidity in
response to the credit crunch. But unlike the Fed, it has not so far felt the
need to bring down interest rates.
七年过去了，这些比对显得不可思议。据称欧洲大陆已经明智的避免了美国在次优级抵押贷款上所犯的种种蠢行。它的银行体系更加健康，欧元区7.1%的平均失业率处于几乎二十年中的最低水平，欧元业已复苏，正如Joaquín
Almunia这位富有魅力的欧洲经济事务理事所强调的那样，欧洲目前没有任何衰退迹象。该理事会将于本月晚些时候修正其预测，但是欧元区今年的经济增长率很有可能接近2%。的确，位于法兰克福的欧洲中央银行(ECB)与美联储一样都向金融系统注入大量流动性资产，以此应对信贷紧缩。但是与美联储不同的是，至今它还没有感到有降低利率的必要。
Just
as in 2001, however, the outlook for the euro area seems to be deteriorating a
lot faster than the optimists had expected. After all, the main reason that the
ECB has been reluctant to cut rates is not because growth is so robust but
because inflation has picked up to 3.5%—the highest in the euro's nine-year
existence. Troubles in the region's two biggest export markets—recession in
America and slowdown in Britain—are starting to bite. Exports to Asia have been
strong, especially from Germany, but in most countries nervous consumers remain
reluctant to spend.
然而，正如2001年，欧元区经济前景恶化的速度似乎比乐观主义者所期待的要快得多。毕竟，欧洲中央银行一直不愿削减利率的主要原因并非是因为经济增长势头强劲，而是由于通胀率已攀升至3.5%——欧元九年历史的最高位。该地区最大的两个出口市场都陷入困境，其中美国经济步入衰退，英国经济也已减速，由此而产生的效果正开始显现。对亚洲的出口，尤其是源于德国的出口一直强劲，但是在大多数国家里，紧张的消费者依然不愿消费。
And
two bigger worries have emerged. The first is the strength of the euro. A weaker
dollar is driving an American export boom; a stronger euro is likely to have the
opposite effect in Europe. Mr Almunia says the euro is "overvalued" and adds
that, although the impact has been moderate so far, "we are at the limits, if
not beyond them." It is a delusion to suppose that euro-area exports can
continue to barrel on regardless of their
cost.
两个更大的忧虑已经出现。其一就是欧元的强势。日趋羸弱的美元使美国的出口呈现一片繁荣景象；不断强势的欧元则很可能在欧洲产生相反的效果。Almunia认为欧元现在"被高估了"，并补充说道，尽管影响至今仍然是温和的，"我们目前处于增长的极限，如果不是已超越极限的话。"那种认为欧元区出口会继续不顾成本，高歌猛进的观点不过是海市蜃楼般的幻觉。
The
second worry is the housing market. Europe may have avoided the American
subprime mess, but in several countries house prices have been even bubblier
than in America. They are already falling in Spain and Ireland, and, beyond the
euro zone, are starting to do so in Britain. A property bust may not produce an
American-style mortgage meltdown, but it will surely topple economies heavily
dependent on construction (which accounts for 15% or more of Spanish and Irish
GDP, for example).
第二个忧虑就是<SPAN class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B5%D8%B2%FA">房地产市场。欧洲或许已经避免了美国式的次贷危机，但是在好几个国家，<SPAN
class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B5%D8%B2%FA">房地产市场上的价格泡沫比起美国来有过之而无不及。在西班牙和爱尔兰，<SPAN
class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B2%FA">房产价格已经下跌，并且这种趋势已超越欧元区，英国的<SPAN
class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B2%FA">房产价格也开始下跌。<SPAN class=t_tag
onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B7%BF%B2%FA">房产业的不景气或许不会引发美国式的抵押市场萎缩，但是它势必会重创严重依赖建筑业的经济体（比如建筑业占西班牙与爱尔兰GDP的15%抑或更高的比例。）。
Indeed,
Mr Almunia's home country of Spain appears especially vulnerable. He maintains
that Anglo-Saxon commentators are excessively pessimistic about Spain's
prospects. But the signs of a sharp slowdown are clear even to the re-elected
prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who has announced a fiscal
stimulus to help Spain weather the "turbulence". Given that Spain has in recent
years accounted for a big chunk of euro-zone growth and close to half of all
jobs created in the euro area, its slowdown will be widely felt. And not just in
economics. It will be a lot harder to sell the EU's ambitious plans to cut CO2
emissions in a faltering economy, for
instance.
其实，Almunia先生的祖国西班牙显得特别易受伤害。他坚持认为英美的评论员们对于西班牙的前景过于悲观。但是甚至对于重新当选的首相José
Luis Rodríguez
Zapatero来说，经济急速减缓的迹象已是显而易见。Zapatero已经宣布了一项财政刺激方案用以帮助西班牙经受住此次"动荡"。考虑到最近几年来西班牙占欧元区经济增长的很大比重，它占该地区所创造就业机会的比例更是接近一半，因此西班牙经济减速所造成的影响将会相当广泛。而且影响面不单单局限于经济领域。比如说要在一个步履蹒跚的经济体内兜售欧盟雄心勃勃的二氧化碳减排计划，那将是难上加难。
The
political fallout will be felt in other ways too, because of the differential
performance of euro-area economies. Mr Almunia admits that France and Italy are
a lot weaker than Germany; soon enough, French and Italian leaders (especially
if Silvio Berlusconi wins Italy's imminent election) will squeal ever more
loudly about the euro's strength, the ECB's rigid monetary policy and, quite
possibly, will demand that their industries be protected from "unfair"
competition. Such pressure will be resisted by the Germans, who remain
comfortable with the euro's strength and always hate criticism of the ECB.
因为欧元区经济的表现不尽相同，<SPAN class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%D5%FE%D6%CE">政治上产生的余波也会已其他方式显露出来。Almunia先生承认法国和意大利要明显弱于德国;很快，法国和意大利的领导人（特别是如果Silvio
Berlusconi赢得意大利即将举行的<SPAN class=t_tag onclick=tagshow(event)
href="tag.php?name=%B4%F3%D1%A1">大选）将会比以往更大声地抱怨欧元的强势，抱怨欧洲中央银行严苛的货币政策，并且极有可能要求他们国家的产业免于受到所谓"不公平"的竞争。这样的压力自然会受到德国人的抵抗，德国人对于欧元的强势依然很适应而且总是很憎恨对欧洲中央银行的批评。
<FONT
size=3>The dark face of success
成功的黑暗面
Even critics of the
euro would concede that it has had considerable success, establishing itself in
less than a decade as a genuine rival to the dollar as a world currency. But
that success disguises two failings. The first is that some countries have
adapted a lot better to the discipline of the euro than others. Germany and the
Netherlands have cut labour costs and introduced enough reforms to make their
economies more competitive. France, Spain and especially Italy have done
less—and are suffering more, from both the euro's rise and the global
slowdown.
即便是欧元的批评者也不得不承认欧元已经取得了巨大的成功，在不到十年的时间内，将自己打造成贵为世界货币的美元的真正对手。但是成功的背后隐藏着两项弱点。其一就是一些国家对欧元纪律的适应性要比其他国家好得多。德国和荷兰削减了劳工成本，推行足够多的改革措施使得他们的经济更富有竞争力。法国，西班牙，尤其是意大利在这方面无所建树，因而面临欧元升值以及全球经济放缓时所受到的打击更严重。
The
second failing is an ironic flipside of success. To qualify for the euro in the
late 1990s, countries such as Italy and Spain had to make swingeing fiscal and
structural adjustments. Yet by shielding weaker countries from a currency
crisis, the euro now relieves much of the pressure on them to keep up reforms.
In fact, these are more essential than ever now that countries have lost the
option of devaluing their currencies to regain competitiveness and offset
relatively slow productivity growth. As Mr Almunia sadly concedes, it has proved
impossible "to compensate for the lack of market incentives for reform through
policy co-ordination and peer pressure".
第二个缺陷正是成功具有讽刺意味的另一面。为了有资质于上世纪九十年代末加入欧元区，像意大利和西班牙这样的国家不得不进行猛烈的财政和结构调整。然而通过保护较弱小的国家免于货币危机，欧元现在解除了这些国家继续改革的压力。实际上，鉴于这些国家现在已经不能通过货币贬值的方式来重获竞争力，弥补相对较慢的生产率增长速度，这些改革比以往任何时候都显得重要。正如Almunia忧伤承认的那样，"通过政策协调以及同僚压力来弥补市场激励改革的缺失已被证明是不可能的。"
In
truth, as the euro approaches its tenth birthday celebrations, it is facing the
biggest test of its short life. If Europe follows America into recession, which
is quite possible, the pain will be a lot greater in the Mediterranean countries
than in Germany and northern Europe. Not surprisingly, the political response
from the two regions will also be quite different. Even as it prepares to expand
once more to take in Slovakia and later other countries from eastern Europe, the
euro is about to show the world that it is not yet an optimal currency area—and
the demonstration may not be a pretty one.
实际上，在欧元即将迎来它十周年庆典之际，它正面临着其短暂生涯中最严峻的考验。如果欧洲步美国之后尘，陷入衰退（这一幕很有可能会出现），那么地中海国家所遭受的痛楚要比德国以及北欧严重得多。如果发现这两个地区在政治上的反应截然不同，那你不必感到惊讶。即便欧元区准备再次扩充，先是斯洛伐克，而后再吸收来自东欧的其他国家，欧元终将向世人展现出它还没有发展成为一个最优的货币区域这一事实，而且这次展示或许并非那么精彩绝伦。<FONT
size=3>
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